Risk Maps

Risk Maps

Principal researcher: Jan Maes

Overall objective:

Currently, the landslide risk situation and effectiveness of disaster risk reduction (DRR) measures in western Uganda is unknown. Therefore, the following research questions will be investigated in western Uganda:

• What is the current risk of landslides in monetary terms and probability of loss of life?
• What is the risk range if a certain landslide risk reduction scenario is implemented?
• What is the cost-effectiveness of actual/potential landslide DRR strategies?

Methodology:

In order to answer the first research question, the landslide risk equation will be estimated for property damage and loss of life. As such risk maps can be produced for specific case-studies in western Uganda. According to Fell et al. (2008), total Risk consists of the following components: hazard, elements at risk, and their vulnerability. Consequently, the risk estimation will be based on hazard analysis (make a link to Lies’ part), impact assessment (make link to Kewan’s part) and identification of elements-at-risk.

What the second research question concerns, expert knowledge will be used to estimate risk range for risk reduction scenarios.

Finally, the third research question will be answered by a Cost-Benefit Analysis (CBA) of current and potential DRR measures.

Planning:

This research will only be possible after the hazard analysis and impact assessment have successfully produced output. In the summer of 2016, additional fieldwork on the elements-at-risk will be conducted in western Uganda, after which all different results will be put together in order to estimate the landslide risk.